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What’s Behind the Jobs Report

I ended up with an unusually quiet day today and about mid-afternoon began thinking about a nap. Instead, I decided to look at the most recent jobs report to see what I might learn. With all the current political rhetoric going on I suspect we will hear nothing factual so maybe I can dig deeper and formulate an opinion.

Well after two or three mini naps, I got through it the first time and after a couple more got through it the second time. Still not sure I understand all I read, I did find a couple morsels of interest. I like to find some perspective rather than just looking at the current numbers. I also like to find trends and then determine if they are going in a direction and speed I like.

First of all the net creation of jobs over the last year is 1.1 million new jobs. As of the last day of July there were 3.2 million job openings available. That number of openings was 1.1 million more than in July of 2009. The other point of interest was that eight industries increased numbers of jobs but the government jobs decreased. These all seem to be trends that are positive.

The next thing I found interesting is what makes up job gains and losses. They divide "hires" into sectors and the problem is that the monthly rate of hires in the private sector has been relatively flat and the government hires has decreased. What caught my eye was how job losses are separated. They are made up of Quits, Discharges and Layoffs and other. The other is inconsequential.

Eight industries experienced an increase over the year in the number of job openings; the number of job openings decreased for federal government.

The portion of job losses in the Quits column has been increasing which suggests greater mobility on a voluntary basis. The proportion of Discharges and Layoffs has been decreasing. Over the last 12 months there were 47.8 million hires and 46.6 separations, hence a 1.1 million net gain. The goal I hear on TV is 1 million net gain per month. That's a long way from here.

At the end of the process, I'm not sure how much I've gained. But it seems important to actually have a reference point other than talking heads. It doesn't seem to be getting worse. The problem is that it isn't getting better quick enough.

About the Author

Ed Dewitt

Ed Dewitt
Stonegate Mortgage
Cell: 317-973-4134
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More about me - " Ed has over thirty years of experience in the mortgage industry. He has built and sold three mortgage companies and built three major divisions for national mortgage companies. His experience in Secondary Marketing of mortgages includes managing a $3 billion... "

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